2023 Autumn Statement - the economic picture

22 Nov 2023

Within his Autumn Statement speech, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt outlined measures to back business and 'get Britain growing'.

In its report prepared for the Autumn Statement, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) indicated that the UK economy will grow by 0.6% this year, 0.7% in 2024 and by 1.4% in 2025. These new figures are down from the OBR's previous predictions of 1.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, outlined in March.

However, the OBR's latest outlook does suggest that government borrowing and debt will be lower than previously forecast. It also warned that inflation – which currently sits at 4.6% – will only fall to 2.8% by the end of next year. It predicts that it will reach the government's 2% target in 2025.

Commenting on its latest economic predictions, the OBR stated: 'The economy has proved more resilient to the shocks of the pandemic and energy crisis than we anticipated, but inflation has also been more persistent and interest rates higher than in March.

'Higher inflation boosts tax revenues but also welfare benefits, while higher interest rates push up debt servicing. But because departmental spending is left largely unchanged, this delivers a net fiscal windfall of £27 billion.'